Watchlist · Timeline

Mon, Dec 270

No recorded events

Tue, Dec 280

No recorded events

Wed, Dec 290

No recorded events

Thu, Dec 300

No recorded events

Fri, Dec 319

BWXTdeadline verdict: US heavy reactor-vessel forge qualification + Pele-class program status

Binding thesis test

Criterion · Reads FALSIFIED if, on or before 2027-12-31, an agency or issuer release names a second US-qualified heavy reactor-vessel forge (Naval Reactors- or NRC-qualified, not BWXT), OR the DoD SCO / DOE formally cancels the Pele-class microreactor program. Reads POSITIVE at the deadline when neither release exists.

Postponements · 0/2 · pending

Source: DoD Strategic Capabilities Office / DOE Project Pele program record + Naval Reactors / NRC vessel-forge qualification announcements (issuer and agency releases)

BWXT →

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MPdeadline verdict: export-flow / offtake-subsidy / output-guidance check

Binding thesis test

Criterion · China durably normalizes Nd/NdFeB export flows (no new restriction through 2027-06-30) AND Texas magnet facility government offtake/subsidy support is cut or materially delayed, or Mountain Pass output guidance is cut

Postponements · 0/2 · pending

Source: China export-policy record + MP Materials guidance/issuer disclosures

MP →

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NVDAdeadline verdict: quarterly revenue-outlook and data-center-revenue scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing

Binding thesis test

Criterion · Reads FALSIFIED on the first quarterly print at which the next-quarter revenue outlook midpoint is below the total revenue just reported, or at which reported data center revenue is below the immediately prior quarter's. Reads POSITIVE at the 2027-12-31 deadline when neither prints. The mega-cap trim rule is expression, never a verdict input; the share price is never a verdict input.

Postponements · 0/2 · pending

Source: Nvidia quarterly earnings releases and CFO commentary (next-quarter revenue outlook midpoint; data center segment revenue; issuer-published, first-release vintage)

NVDA →

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MPdeadline verdict: export-flow / offtake-subsidy / output-guidance check

Binding thesis test

Criterion · China durably normalizes Nd/NdFeB export flows (no new restriction through 2027-06-30) AND Texas magnet facility government offtake/subsidy support is cut or materially delayed, or Mountain Pass output guidance is cut

Postponements · 0/2 · pending

Source: China export-policy record + MP Materials guidance/issuer disclosures

MP →

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GOOGLdeadline verdict: quarterly capital-expenditure guidance scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing

Binding thesis test

Criterion · Reads FALSIFIED on the first quarterly print at which the stated full-year capital expenditure guidance (range midpoint, or the single figure where one is given) is below the figure given at the immediately prior print. Reads POSITIVE at the 2027-12-31 deadline when no such reduction prints. A raised or held guide is a supporting reading, never a verdict; the share price is never a verdict input.

Postponements · 0/2 · pending

Source: Alphabet quarterly earnings releases and earnings-call guidance (full-year capital expenditure guidance; issuer-published, first-release vintage)

GOOGL →

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BWXTVerdict deadline

Recorded deadline