Binding thesis test
Criterion · Reads FALSIFIED on the first FRED DGS10 business-day close at or below 4.50% dated on any day through 2027-03-30. Reads POSITIVE at the 2027-03-31 deadline when no such close prints. The 2026-09-16 FOMC decision is the first dated checkpoint on the mechanism — context, never a verdict input.
Postponements · 0/2 · pending
- Source
- FRED DGS10 daily — US Treasury constant-maturity 10-year par yield (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, business-day closes through 2027-03-30), cross-checked against the treasury.gov daily par curve; FOMC statement 2026-09-16 (federalreserve.gov) as the first checkpoint