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標的詳情

CEG

+2.3% 鎖定以來(持倉同向) · 最新收盤價 285.07(10月8日) · 最高收盤 300.40 · 最低收盤 254.02 · 鎖定至今 57 天

四個版面對同一標的的全部所知,匯於一頁。

已鎖定譜系
MERGED · Ethan · 已了結 2028-01-31
Nuclear baseload, cleanest firm power. Arbiter lands Wednesday Aug 6 - two weeks after the room's own research report. Charlotte's capacity-factor + PPA + IRA-floor thesis gets graded, with FERC named in advance as the risk.

+4.3% 鎖定以來(持倉同向) · 最新收盤價 278.64(8月13日) · 最高收盤 278.68 · 最低收盤 261.10 · 鎖定至今 9 天 · 區間止於 8月13日

已於 2026-08-04 封存,並已走完裁定 —— 下文即當日凍結的原文;封存之後未作任何改動。
成立條件:The 3-2-1 crack complex does not close below $15 for 10 consecutive sessions (no crack-complex demobilization), AND the buildout does not self-fund without a scarcity premium — through the deadline.
證偽條件:crack-complex demobilization (3-2-1 crack < $15 x10 sessions) OR buildout self-funds w/o scarcity premium
驅動因素 Incentivized flow 擬議
驗證明細

每枚指紋都是被凍結原文的 SHA-256 摘要 —— 摘要相符,即證明你所讀的文字就是封存時的文字。

主張指紋(thesis_hash)519045b989a1688e…證偽條件指紋(falsifier_hash)23daa44722288f4f…成立檢驗指紋(predicate_hash)f93bf7a3c4dc0e15…外部存證回執 manual_operator · 摘要 767ecfbb2c866538… · received
LOCKED · Ethan · 裁定截止 2028年1月 · 479 天後
Nuclear baseload — the cleanest firm power on the grid, owned at scale. The mechanism is about the quality of a megawatt: data centers need power that is always on and increasingly need it clean, and an operating nuclear fleet is the only asset that is both, today, with a decade of construction standing between any competitor and parity. Constellation runs the largest nuclear fleet in the country, at the capacity factors that make "always on" a measured fact rather than a slogan; it has signed decade-scale contracts with the hyperscalers, and a federal floor sits under the fleet's economics — so scarcity arrives as term revenue, not spot noise. The named risk was registered in advance: FERC, the regulator with the power to move the goalposts. The expression is the common — the fleet is the position. The kill condition deliberately reaches outside the company, because the thesis is a regime claim: if the refining complex demobilizes — crack spreads collapsing and staying collapsed for ten sessions — or the buildout starts funding itself without paying any scarcity premium, then the energy-scarcity regime this name is priced on has ended, and the thesis ends with it, whatever the fleet earned that quarter. Verdict due January 31, 2028.

+2.3% 鎖定以來(持倉同向) · 最新收盤價 285.07(10月8日) · 最高收盤 300.40 · 最低收盤 254.02 · 鎖定至今 57 天

已於 2026-08-13 封存 —— 主張本身、何以致敗、何以成立,均憑外部回執凍結。此處任何內容都無法被悄然改動。
成立條件:The 3-2-1 crack complex does not close below $15 for 10 consecutive sessions (no crack-complex demobilization), AND the buildout does not self-fund without a scarcity premium — through the deadline.
證偽條件:crack-complex demobilization (3-2-1 crack < $15 x10 sessions) OR buildout self-funds w/o scarcity premium
驅動因素 Incentivized flow 擬議
驗證明細

每枚指紋都是被凍結原文的 SHA-256 摘要 —— 摘要相符,即證明你所讀的文字就是封存時的文字。

主張指紋(thesis_hash)347b3998e9f46674…證偽條件指紋(falsifier_hash)41397e28ed0f0e9f…成立檢驗指紋(predicate_hash)014b9266a3d2704d…外部存證回執 manual_operator · 摘要 3a0fa76c743c577a… · received
交叉詰問

成員可對已鎖定譜系提交反證;檯內須在期限前公開作答 —— 無論作答與否,該期限都在此呈現。

尚無成員對此標的的已鎖定譜系提交反證。詰問席已開放:在 Slack 中使用 `/thesis challenge CEG <你的反證>`。

COUNTER-EVIDENCE ≠ GRADE — a challenge never grades the thesis and never moves a score; it puts the desk on a public clock. —— 反證不等於評級:一次質疑絕不為論點評級、絕不移動分數;它只是使本檯進入公開計時。
版次評估
版次評估

全場在各封存版次中評定的是命題 —— 而非某位成員。

2026-07-25 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 5ac949a40d51396556dd73a5…
2026-08-01 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 11a8fa4cad4120f7ad61f7af…
2026-08-08 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 cjson-v1:29b5145ba5f2f06…
2026-08-15 · CARRY 事後補錄 版次雜湊 74627a4ca261cc14a73ccad5…
2026-08-22 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 557bf5ef55f5d1fb8c7a88bf…
2026-08-29 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 15bd0390467e559c74c076f3…
2026-09-05 · NO TEST 事後補錄 已被勘誤取代 —— founder ruling D1 2026-09-20: standing thesis with no dated test grades CARRY 版次雜湊 3ad7e3fa56cf10ecb514d9f1…
2026-09-05 · CARRY 事後補錄 勘誤:更正較早紀錄 版次雜湊 3ad7e3fa56cf10ecb514d9f1…
2026-09-12 · CARRY 事後補錄 版次雜湊 6271a4889f18e60066663572…
2026-09-19 · CARRY 事後補錄 版次雜湊 4f554e02dd2769ad9cd297aa…
2026-10-03 · CARRY 事後補錄 版次雜湊 6cbb3f12f574ec962d2274d6…
本週 · 0 項事件

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即將到來
到期裁定日 · 裁定截止 2028年1月 · 479 天後

行事曆區間內此標的無預定市場事件。

仲裁事件
仲裁事件FERC ruling (pre-named referee) · 2026-08-06 · FERC · PRE-REGISTERED (founder-approved 2026-08-04; supersedes copied-falsifier criterion). SOURCE: FERC Docket EL25-49 (Constellation Energy v. PJM, co-located load) and compliance/paper-hearing issuances stemming from the 2025-12-18 order; qualifying issuance on or about 2026-08-06. FOR (supports thesis): the ruling preserves generator-side co-location economics — no mandate of full network transmission charges on fully-isolated co-located load; behind-the-meter co-location at existing nuclear permitted on terms materially consistent with Constellation's advocacy. AGAINST: the ruling mandates full transmission/network cost allocation (or economically equivalent charges) on co-located load at existing generators, materially eroding the co-location scarcity premium. POSTPONEMENT: no qualifying issuance by 2026-08-06 +2 business days → increment postponement_count and roll arbiter_date to the docket's next scheduled issuance; no verdict-by-default. SEMANTICS: checkpoint grade FOR/AGAINST/POSTPONED per C48 product mapping — not terminal falsification. FALSIFIER NOTE: crack clause attested INTENTIONAL by founder 2026-08-04 (Thermodynamic-Wall kill-switch); 3-2-1 series pinned = (2×RBOB + 1×ULSD)/3 − WTI, NYMEX settlements; adapter procurement owed before machine evaluation. · 0/2FERC ruling (pre-named referee) · 2026-08-06 · FERC · PRE-REGISTERED (founder-approved 2026-08-04; supersedes copied-falsifier criterion). SOURCE: FERC Docket EL25-49 (Constellation Energy v. PJM, co-located load) and compliance/paper-hearing issuances stemming from the 2025-12-18 order; qualifying issuance on or about 2026-08-06. FOR (supports thesis): the ruling preserves generator-side co-location economics — no mandate of full network transmission charges on fully-isolated co-located load; behind-the-meter co-location at existing nuclear permitted on terms materially consistent with Constellation's advocacy. AGAINST: the ruling mandates full transmission/network cost allocation (or economically equivalent charges) on co-located load at existing generators, materially eroding the co-location scarcity premium. POSTPONEMENT: no qualifying issuance by 2026-08-06 +2 business days → increment postponement_count and roll arbiter_date to the docket's next scheduled issuance; no verdict-by-default. SEMANTICS: checkpoint grade FOR/AGAINST/POSTPONED per C48 product mapping — not terminal falsification. FALSIFIER NOTE: crack clause attested INTENTIONAL by founder 2026-08-04 (Thermodynamic-Wall kill-switch); 3-2-1 series pinned = (2×RBOB + 1×ULSD)/3 − WTI, NYMEX settlements; adapter procurement owed before machine evaluation. · 0/2
最新行情
最新行情
9月30日 · 內部人申報 · 188 股
9月30日 · 內部人申報 · 82 股
9月30日 · 新聞稿 · Constellation and Amazon Announce 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement Adding 190…

預定公布的數據僅是背景,絕非證據 —— 此處一切均不為論點評級。

行情
行情

+12.9% 自入冊以來 · 2026-07-17 → 2026-10-08

2026-10-08 · 285.07

23/47 個交易日有持倉方向 — 同向性,而非裁斷。

最新交易日 +0.6CEG · 2026-09-25
收盤 0.63% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−1.1CEG · 2026-09-28
收盤 -1.08% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+1.6CEG · 2026-09-29
收盤 1.59% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−4.0CEG · 2026-09-30
收盤 -3.99% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+1.9CEG · 2026-10-01
收盤 1.93% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−0.6CEG · 2026-10-02
收盤 -0.55% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+3.9CEG · 2026-10-05
收盤 3.93% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+12.2CEG · 2026-10-06
收盤 12.25% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−0.3CEG · 2026-10-07
收盤 -0.27% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−4.8CEG · 2026-10-08
收盤 -4.85% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.

每日收盤至收盤報酬率 · Financial Modeling Prep 日終收盤價,每日自動擷取 · 最新交易日 2026-10-08.

TAPE ≠ VERDICT — tape agreement never grades a proposition and never derives an assessment. —— 行情不等於裁定:行情同向性絕不為命題評級,也絕不由此推導評估。
時間軸泳道
時間軸泳道
ARBITERTODAYFERC ruling (pre-named referee) · FERC
ARBITERTODAYFERC ruling (pre-named referee) · FERC
LOCK-DEADLINET−479d須於 2028-01-31 前通過其檢驗

時間軸上的完整泳道

身分識別
身分識別
規範代碼CEG首現版次2026-07-18名錄狀態在冊
2026-07-18 → 沿用至今 · CEG seeded from registry canonical_ticker — operator/MCP 2026-08-04 (open window; mechanical derivation, §ONTOLOGY: registry owns symbol history)
分歧
分歧

此標的的編輯層與裁定層之間無分歧。

開放立場堆疊

見於 0 個開放成員立場堆疊中的 0 個。

完整紀錄存於立場堆疊 — 立場是座標,絕非建議。