EXE

Gas production, upstream of the constraint. The buildout is priced in chips and tokens, but it runs on molecules as much as electrons, and the world's two benchmark gas prices spent this year telling incompatible stories: Europe's benchmark climbed all year while Henry Hub got cheaper. That divergence is the most durable spread on the tape, and it did not mean-revert — it widened. Expand Energy produces American gas at American prices — the cheap side of the wedge — which makes it the listed expression of the gap. What it sells is the molecule the buildout burns; what the book is waiting for is the day the world price reaches back into the domestic one. The honest tension is printed with the position: cheap Henry Hub is today's headwind and the whole argument at once, because the wedge only pays when it closes from the American side up, not the European side down. The expression is cash equity, held for that repricing. The kill is arithmetic and judged once, at year-end: if the transatlantic spread closes below thirty points by December 31, 2026, or the European price collapses and stays down for ten straight sessions, the wedge is gone and the thesis goes with it. Verdict due December 31, 2026.