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標的詳情

SNDK

+8.9% 鎖定以來(持倉同向) (價格 −8.9%) · 最新收盤價 1609.46(10月8日) · 最高收盤 1843.41 · 最低收盤 1609.46 · 鎖定至今 18 天 · 自提交(7月19日)以來(持倉同向):−18.8%

四個版面對同一標的的全部所知,匯於一頁。

已鎖定譜系
LOCKED · Ethan · 裁定截止 2027年6月 · 264 天後
Same cycle as Micron, without the secular story to hide behind. Storage is a commodity: the price is set by the marginal competitor's willingness to cut, the capacity comes on in lumps, and the customer is the same power-constrained buildout that is learning to defer deliveries. SanDisk had its run alongside memory and carries the same three burdens into the turn — heavy spending to build production against unfilled orders, an energy input repricing under it, and pricing it does not control — with none of the artificial-intelligence-demand narrative that lets a memory maker argue this time is different. That absence is the point of filing it separately: if the cycle read is right, storage shows it first and cleanest. It did on the tape — the week the AI trade cracked, this was the strongest grade on the demand side, down eleven percent on a single Friday. The expression is the stance, graded on the prints, and it shares one bet with the Micron filing under the book's concentration law: one thesis in two wrappers, sized jointly if ever sized at all. The kill is the same pair, on this company's own numbers: two consecutive quarterly prints in which gross margin holds or widens quarter over quarter while next-quarter revenue guidance steps above the quarter just reported. A cycle that stops rolling over ends the thesis. Verdict due June 30, 2027.

+8.9% 鎖定以來(持倉同向) (價格 −8.9%) · 最新收盤價 1609.46(10月8日) · 最高收盤 1843.41 · 最低收盤 1609.46 · 鎖定至今 18 天 · 自提交(7月19日)以來(持倉同向):−18.8%

已於 2026-09-21 封存 —— 主張本身、何以致敗、何以成立,均憑外部回執凍結。此處任何內容都無法被悄然改動。
成立條件:In no two consecutive quarterly prints (first-release vintage) before the deadline does SanDisk report gross margin flat or higher quarter over quarter while guiding next-quarter revenue (midpoint) above the quarter just reported — through the deadline.
證偽條件:SanDisk reports gross margin (as reported in its quarterly earnings release, non-GAAP where reported) flat or higher quarter over quarter AND guides next-quarter revenue (midpoint) above the quarter just reported, at two consecutive quarterly prints (first-release vintage), before the deadline.
驗證明細

每枚指紋都是被凍結原文的 SHA-256 摘要 —— 摘要相符,即證明你所讀的文字就是封存時的文字。

主張指紋(thesis_hash)b7eb9d256f2158c7…證偽條件指紋(falsifier_hash)8f3387e8dabe3f1e…成立檢驗指紋(predicate_hash)cbd3188915d732fa…外部存證回執 manual_operator · 摘要 79437d752e061148… · received
交叉詰問

成員可對已鎖定譜系提交反證;檯內須在期限前公開作答 —— 無論作答與否,該期限都在此呈現。

尚無成員對此標的的已鎖定譜系提交反證。詰問席已開放:在 Slack 中使用 `/thesis challenge SNDK <你的反證>`。

COUNTER-EVIDENCE ≠ GRADE — a challenge never grades the thesis and never moves a score; it puts the desk on a public clock. —— 反證不等於評級:一次質疑絕不為論點評級、絕不移動分數;它只是使本檯進入公開計時。
版次評估
版次評估

全場在各封存版次中評定的是命題 —— 而非某位成員。

2026-07-25 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 5ac949a40d51396556dd73a5…
2026-08-01 · SUPPORTED 事後補錄 版次雜湊 11a8fa4cad4120f7ad61f7af…
2026-08-08 · NO TEST 事後補錄 版次雜湊 cjson-v1:29b5145ba5f2f06…
2026-08-22 · NO TEST 事後補錄 版次雜湊 557bf5ef55f5d1fb8c7a88bf…
2026-08-29 · NO TEST 事後補錄 版次雜湊 15bd0390467e559c74c076f3…
2026-09-05 · NO TEST 事後補錄 版次雜湊 3ad7e3fa56cf10ecb514d9f1…
2026-10-03 · CARRY 事後補錄 版次雜湊 6cbb3f12f574ec962d2274d6…
本週 · 0 項事件

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即將到來
10月29日 · 財報 — 背景參考,而非證據
到期裁定日 · 裁定截止 2027年6月 · 264 天後

預定公布的數據僅是背景,絕非證據 —— 此處一切均不為論點評級。

仲裁事件
仲裁事件deadline verdict: quarterly gross-margin and revenue-guidance pair scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · 2027-06-30 · SanDisk quarterly earnings releases and 8-K exhibits on EDGAR (reported gross margin; next-quarter revenue guidance midpoint; first-release vintage) · Reads FALSIFIED on the second of two consecutive quarterly prints in which reported gross margin is flat or higher than the immediately prior quarter's AND the next-quarter revenue guidance midpoint exceeds the revenue just reported. Reads POSITIVE at the 2027-06-30 deadline when no such consecutive pair prints. Graded on SanDisk's own prints only — the Micron verdict is context, never a verdict input. · 0/2
最新行情
最新行情
10月1日 · 內部人賣出 · 600 股,單價 $1734.94
9月29日 · 新聞稿 · Sandisk to Report First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results on October 29, 2026

預定公布的數據僅是背景,絕非證據 —— 此處一切均不為論點評級。

行情
行情

+18.8% 自入冊以來 · 2026-07-17 → 2026-10-08

2026-10-08 · 1609.46

29/58 個交易日有持倉方向 — 同向性,而非裁斷。

最新交易日 −1.4SNDK · 2026-09-25
收盤 1.38% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+3.7SNDK · 2026-09-28
收盤 -3.65% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−1.0SNDK · 2026-09-29
收盤 0.98% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−0.6SNDK · 2026-09-30
收盤 0.59% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−2.7SNDK · 2026-10-01
收盤 2.75% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+3.8SNDK · 2026-10-02
收盤 -3.79% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
2026-10-03 所在週的期號 —— 已封存
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+0.9SNDK · 2026-10-05
收盤 -0.92% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+2.6SNDK · 2026-10-06
收盤 -2.56% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
−1.9SNDK · 2026-10-07
收盤 1.92% — 與持倉反向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.
+4.9SNDK · 2026-10-08
收盤 -4.90% — 與持倉同向
持倉方向:SHORT,自 2026-07-19 起
僅為行情同向性紀錄。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等於裁定.

每日收盤至收盤報酬率 · Financial Modeling Prep 日終收盤價,每日自動擷取 · 最新交易日 2026-10-08.

TAPE ≠ VERDICT — tape agreement never grades a proposition and never derives an assessment. —— 行情不等於裁定:行情同向性絕不為命題評級,也絕不由此推導評估。
時間軸泳道
時間軸泳道
MARKETT−20dearnings — context, not evidence
LOCK-DEADLINET−264d須於 2027-06-30 前通過其檢驗
ARBITERT−264ddeadline verdict: quarterly gross-margin and revenue-guidance pair scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · SanDisk quarterly earnings releases and 8-K exhibits on EDGAR (reported gross margin; next-quarter revenue guidance midpoint; first-release vintage)

時間軸上的完整泳道

身分識別
身分識別
規範代碼SNDK首現版次2026-07-19名錄狀態在冊
2026-07-19 → 沿用至今 · SNDK seeded from registry canonical_ticker — operator/MCP 2026-08-04 (open window; mechanical derivation, §ONTOLOGY: registry owns symbol history)
分歧
分歧

此標的的編輯層與裁定層之間無分歧。

開放立場堆疊

見於 0 個開放成員立場堆疊中的 0 個。

完整紀錄存於立場堆疊 — 立場是座標,絕非建議。