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CEG

+2.3% 锁定以来(持仓同向) · 最新收盘价 285.07(10月8日) · 最高收盘 300.40 · 最低收盘 254.02 · 锁定至今 57 天

四个版面对同一标的的全部所知,汇于一页。

已锁定谱系
MERGED · Ethan · 已了结 2028-01-31
Nuclear baseload, cleanest firm power. Arbiter lands Wednesday Aug 6 - two weeks after the room's own research report. Charlotte's capacity-factor + PPA + IRA-floor thesis gets graded, with FERC named in advance as the risk.

+4.3% 锁定以来(持仓同向) · 最新收盘价 278.64(8月13日) · 最高收盘 278.68 · 最低收盘 261.10 · 锁定至今 9 天 · 窗口止于 8月13日

已于 2026-08-04 封存,并已走完裁定 —— 下文即当日冻结的原文;封存之后未作任何改动。
成立条件:The 3-2-1 crack complex does not close below $15 for 10 consecutive sessions (no crack-complex demobilization), AND the buildout does not self-fund without a scarcity premium — through the deadline.
证伪条件:crack-complex demobilization (3-2-1 crack < $15 x10 sessions) OR buildout self-funds w/o scarcity premium
驱动因素 Incentivized flow 拟议
核验明细

每枚指纹都是被冻结原文的 SHA-256 摘要 —— 摘要相符,即证明你所读的文字就是封存时的文字。

主张指纹(thesis_hash)519045b989a1688e…证伪条件指纹(falsifier_hash)23daa44722288f4f…成立检验指纹(predicate_hash)f93bf7a3c4dc0e15…外部存证回执 manual_operator · 摘要 767ecfbb2c866538… · received
LOCKED · Ethan · 裁定截止 2028年1月 · 479 天后
Nuclear baseload — the cleanest firm power on the grid, owned at scale. The mechanism is about the quality of a megawatt: data centers need power that is always on and increasingly need it clean, and an operating nuclear fleet is the only asset that is both, today, with a decade of construction standing between any competitor and parity. Constellation runs the largest nuclear fleet in the country, at the capacity factors that make "always on" a measured fact rather than a slogan; it has signed decade-scale contracts with the hyperscalers, and a federal floor sits under the fleet's economics — so scarcity arrives as term revenue, not spot noise. The named risk was registered in advance: FERC, the regulator with the power to move the goalposts. The expression is the common — the fleet is the position. The kill condition deliberately reaches outside the company, because the thesis is a regime claim: if the refining complex demobilizes — crack spreads collapsing and staying collapsed for ten sessions — or the buildout starts funding itself without paying any scarcity premium, then the energy-scarcity regime this name is priced on has ended, and the thesis ends with it, whatever the fleet earned that quarter. Verdict due January 31, 2028.

+2.3% 锁定以来(持仓同向) · 最新收盘价 285.07(10月8日) · 最高收盘 300.40 · 最低收盘 254.02 · 锁定至今 57 天

已于 2026-08-13 封存 —— 主张本身、何以致败、何以成立,均凭外部回执冻结。此处任何内容都无法被悄然改动。
成立条件:The 3-2-1 crack complex does not close below $15 for 10 consecutive sessions (no crack-complex demobilization), AND the buildout does not self-fund without a scarcity premium — through the deadline.
证伪条件:crack-complex demobilization (3-2-1 crack < $15 x10 sessions) OR buildout self-funds w/o scarcity premium
驱动因素 Incentivized flow 拟议
核验明细

每枚指纹都是被冻结原文的 SHA-256 摘要 —— 摘要相符,即证明你所读的文字就是封存时的文字。

主张指纹(thesis_hash)347b3998e9f46674…证伪条件指纹(falsifier_hash)41397e28ed0f0e9f…成立检验指纹(predicate_hash)014b9266a3d2704d…外部存证回执 manual_operator · 摘要 3a0fa76c743c577a… · received
交叉质证

成员可对已锁定谱系提交反证;台内须在期限前公开作答 —— 无论作答与否,该期限都在此呈现。

尚无成员对此标的的已锁定谱系提交反证。质证席已开放:在 Slack 中使用 `/thesis challenge CEG <你的反证>`。

COUNTER-EVIDENCE ≠ GRADE — a challenge never grades the thesis and never moves a score; it puts the desk on a public clock. —— 反证不等于评级:一次质疑绝不为论点评级、绝不移动分数;它只是使本台进入公开计时。
版次评估
版次评估

全场在各封存版次中评定的是命题 —— 而非某位成员。

2026-07-25 · SUPPORTED 事后补录 版次哈希 5ac949a40d51396556dd73a5…
2026-08-01 · SUPPORTED 事后补录 版次哈希 11a8fa4cad4120f7ad61f7af…
2026-08-08 · SUPPORTED 事后补录 版次哈希 cjson-v1:29b5145ba5f2f06…
2026-08-15 · CARRY 事后补录 版次哈希 74627a4ca261cc14a73ccad5…
2026-08-22 · SUPPORTED 事后补录 版次哈希 557bf5ef55f5d1fb8c7a88bf…
2026-08-29 · SUPPORTED 事后补录 版次哈希 15bd0390467e559c74c076f3…
2026-09-05 · NO TEST 事后补录 已被勘误取代 —— founder ruling D1 2026-09-20: standing thesis with no dated test grades CARRY 版次哈希 3ad7e3fa56cf10ecb514d9f1…
2026-09-05 · CARRY 事后补录 勘误:更正较早记录 版次哈希 3ad7e3fa56cf10ecb514d9f1…
2026-09-12 · CARRY 事后补录 版次哈希 6271a4889f18e60066663572…
2026-09-19 · CARRY 事后补录 版次哈希 4f554e02dd2769ad9cd297aa…
2026-10-03 · CARRY 事后补录 版次哈希 6cbb3f12f574ec962d2274d6…
本周 · 0 项事件

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即将到来
到期裁定日 · 裁定截止 2028年1月 · 479 天后

日历区间内此标的无预定市场事件。

仲裁事件
仲裁事件FERC ruling (pre-named referee) · 2026-08-06 · FERC · PRE-REGISTERED (founder-approved 2026-08-04; supersedes copied-falsifier criterion). SOURCE: FERC Docket EL25-49 (Constellation Energy v. PJM, co-located load) and compliance/paper-hearing issuances stemming from the 2025-12-18 order; qualifying issuance on or about 2026-08-06. FOR (supports thesis): the ruling preserves generator-side co-location economics — no mandate of full network transmission charges on fully-isolated co-located load; behind-the-meter co-location at existing nuclear permitted on terms materially consistent with Constellation's advocacy. AGAINST: the ruling mandates full transmission/network cost allocation (or economically equivalent charges) on co-located load at existing generators, materially eroding the co-location scarcity premium. POSTPONEMENT: no qualifying issuance by 2026-08-06 +2 business days → increment postponement_count and roll arbiter_date to the docket's next scheduled issuance; no verdict-by-default. SEMANTICS: checkpoint grade FOR/AGAINST/POSTPONED per C48 product mapping — not terminal falsification. FALSIFIER NOTE: crack clause attested INTENTIONAL by founder 2026-08-04 (Thermodynamic-Wall kill-switch); 3-2-1 series pinned = (2×RBOB + 1×ULSD)/3 − WTI, NYMEX settlements; adapter procurement owed before machine evaluation. · 0/2FERC ruling (pre-named referee) · 2026-08-06 · FERC · PRE-REGISTERED (founder-approved 2026-08-04; supersedes copied-falsifier criterion). SOURCE: FERC Docket EL25-49 (Constellation Energy v. PJM, co-located load) and compliance/paper-hearing issuances stemming from the 2025-12-18 order; qualifying issuance on or about 2026-08-06. FOR (supports thesis): the ruling preserves generator-side co-location economics — no mandate of full network transmission charges on fully-isolated co-located load; behind-the-meter co-location at existing nuclear permitted on terms materially consistent with Constellation's advocacy. AGAINST: the ruling mandates full transmission/network cost allocation (or economically equivalent charges) on co-located load at existing generators, materially eroding the co-location scarcity premium. POSTPONEMENT: no qualifying issuance by 2026-08-06 +2 business days → increment postponement_count and roll arbiter_date to the docket's next scheduled issuance; no verdict-by-default. SEMANTICS: checkpoint grade FOR/AGAINST/POSTPONED per C48 product mapping — not terminal falsification. FALSIFIER NOTE: crack clause attested INTENTIONAL by founder 2026-08-04 (Thermodynamic-Wall kill-switch); 3-2-1 series pinned = (2×RBOB + 1×ULSD)/3 − WTI, NYMEX settlements; adapter procurement owed before machine evaluation. · 0/2
最新行情
最新行情
9月30日 · 内部人申报 · 188 股
9月30日 · 内部人申报 · 82 股
9月30日 · 新闻稿 · Constellation and Amazon Announce 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement Adding 190…

预定发布的数据仅是背景,绝非证据 —— 此处一切均不为论点评级。

行情
行情

+12.9% 自入册以来 · 2026-07-17 → 2026-10-08

2026-10-08 · 285.07

23/47 个交易日有持仓方向 — 同向性,而非裁断。

最新交易日 +0.6CEG · 2026-09-25
收盘 0.63% — 与持仓同向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在周的期号 —— 已封存
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
−1.1CEG · 2026-09-28
收盘 -1.08% — 与持仓反向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在周的期号 —— 已封存
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
+1.6CEG · 2026-09-29
收盘 1.59% — 与持仓同向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在周的期号 —— 已封存
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
−4.0CEG · 2026-09-30
收盘 -3.99% — 与持仓反向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在周的期号 —— 已封存
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
+1.9CEG · 2026-10-01
收盘 1.93% — 与持仓同向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在周的期号 —— 已封存
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
−0.6CEG · 2026-10-02
收盘 -0.55% — 与持仓反向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
2026-10-03 所在周的期号 —— 已封存
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
+3.9CEG · 2026-10-05
收盘 3.93% — 与持仓同向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
+12.2CEG · 2026-10-06
收盘 12.25% — 与持仓同向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
−0.3CEG · 2026-10-07
收盘 -0.27% — 与持仓反向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.
−4.8CEG · 2026-10-08
收盘 -4.85% — 与持仓反向
持仓方向:LONG,自 2026-08-13 起
仅为行情同向性记录。 TAPE ≠ VERDICT —— 行情不等于裁定.

每日收盘至收盘回报率 · Financial Modeling Prep 日终收盘价,每日自动摄取 · 最新交易日 2026-10-08.

TAPE ≠ VERDICT — tape agreement never grades a proposition and never derives an assessment. —— 行情不等于裁定:行情同向性绝不为命题评级,也绝不由此推导评估。
时间轴泳道
时间轴泳道
ARBITERTODAYFERC ruling (pre-named referee) · FERC
ARBITERTODAYFERC ruling (pre-named referee) · FERC
LOCK-DEADLINET−479d须于 2028-01-31 前通过其检验

时间轴上的完整泳道

身份标识
身份标识
规范代码CEG首现版次2026-07-18名录状态在册
2026-07-18 → 沿用至今 · CEG seeded from registry canonical_ticker — operator/MCP 2026-08-04 (open window; mechanical derivation, §ONTOLOGY: registry owns symbol history)
分歧
分歧

此标的的编辑层与裁定层之间无分歧。

开放立场栈

见于 0 个开放成员立场栈中的 0 个。

完整记录存于立场栈 — 立场是坐标,绝非建议。