Name detail

XOM

+2.1% called side since lock · last close 168.56 (Oct 8) · high close 169.32 · low close 158.30 · 25 days since lock

Everything the four surfaces know about one instrument, on one page.

Locked lineages

LOCKED · Ethan · Verdict due March 2027 · 173 days out

Owns the barrel and the refinery, in the week the barrel touched a hundred. The mechanism is physical: crude went through a hundred on a supply shock, not a demand boom, and the refinery is the tighter asset — diesel margins are at records. The second-quarter report already showed the flow-through: $17.2 billion of free cash on a capital plan the company has not raised. The thesis rests on cash, not on a gesture — nothing in the company's statements commits to a special payout. The risk is that the driver is a strait, and a strait reopens on a headline.

+2.1% called side since lock · last close 168.56 (Oct 8) · high close 169.32 · low close 158.30 · 25 days since lock

Sealed on 2026-09-14 — the claim, what would kill it, and what counts as success are frozen on an outside receipt. Nothing here can be quietly edited.

Succeeds if: WTI does not settle below $70 on any day before 2027-03-31 (EIA daily spot) — through the deadline.

Falsified if: WTI settles below $70 on any day before 2027-03-31 (EIA daily spot).

Drivers Risk-premium change proposed Information update proposed

Verification details

Each fingerprint is a SHA-256 digest of the exact frozen text — a matching digest means the words you read are the words that were sealed.

Claim fingerprint (thesis_hash)3965549e859aebfd…Falsifier fingerprint (falsifier_hash)777f53487842a4fc…Success-test fingerprint (predicate_hash)145f14fedad05c3a…Outside custodyreceipt manual_operator · digest baeda6976021ce4b… · received

Cross-examination

Members file counter-evidence against a locked lineage; the desk owes a public answer by a deadline that renders here either way.

No member has filed counter-evidence against this name's locked lineages. The floor is open: `/thesis challenge XOM <your counter-evidence>` from Slack.

COUNTER-EVIDENCE ≠ GRADE — a challenge never grades the thesis and never moves a score; it puts the desk on a public clock.

Edition assessments

The room graded the proposition in each sealed edition — not a member.

2026-09-19 · CARRY Backfilled edition hash 4f554e02dd2769ad9cd297aa…

2026-10-03 · CARRY Backfilled edition hash 6cbb3f12f574ec962d2274d6…

This week · 0 events

No recorded events

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Coming up

Oct 30 · Earnings — context, not evidence

Verdict deadline · Verdict due March 2027 · 173 days out

Scheduled prints are context, never evidence — nothing here grades a thesis.

Arbiters

Arbitersdaily WTI settle scan through the window; first checkpoint the ExxonMobil Q3 2026 report (late October, realized price and refining margin) · 2027-03-31 · EIA daily spot price — WTI Cushing, Oklahoma (eia.gov, the RWTC daily series, every trading day through 2027-03-30); ExxonMobil Q3 2026 earnings release (investor.exxonmobil.com) for the realized-price and refining-margin checkpoint · Reads FALSIFIED on the first EIA daily WTI (Cushing) spot print strictly below $70.00/bbl dated on any day through 2027-03-30. Reads POSITIVE at the 2027-03-31 deadline when no such daily print exists. The Q3 2026 report's realized price and refining margin are the first dated checkpoint on the mechanism — context, never a verdict input. · 0/2

Fresh tape

Oct 1 · Analyst action · Overweight to Equal Weight (Wells Fargo)

Sep 28 · Analyst action · Buy to Buy (TD Cowen)

Sep 25 · Filing

Scheduled prints are context, never evidence — nothing here grades a thesis.

Tape

+1.5% since added to list · 2026-09-11 → 2026-10-08

2026-10-08 · 168.56

11/19 sessions with call — agreement, not judgment.

Newest sessions −1.0XOM · 2026-09-25
close -0.96% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.+1.2XOM · 2026-09-28
close 1.20% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.−0.7XOM · 2026-09-29
close -0.72% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.+0.9XOM · 2026-09-30
close 0.87% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.+0.7XOM · 2026-10-01
close 0.66% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.+0.1XOM · 2026-10-02
close 0.12% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.−0.0XOM · 2026-10-05
close -0.01% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.+0.3XOM · 2026-10-06
close 0.29% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.−0.3XOM · 2026-10-07
close -0.26% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.+2.7XOM · 2026-10-08
close 2.75% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-14
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.

Daily close-to-close returns · Financial Modeling Prep end-of-day closes, automated daily ingest · newest session 2026-10-08.

TAPE ≠ VERDICT — tape agreement never grades a proposition and never derives an assessment.

Timeline lane

MARKETT−21dearnings — context, not evidence

LOCK-DEADLINET−173dmust meet its test by 2027-03-31

ARBITERT−173ddaily WTI settle scan through the window; first checkpoint the ExxonMobil Q3 2026 report (late October, realized price and refining margin) · EIA daily spot price — WTI Cushing, Oklahoma (eia.gov, the RWTC daily series, every trading day through 2027-03-30); ExxonMobil Q3 2026 earnings release (investor.exxonmobil.com) for the realized-price and refining-margin checkpoint

Full lane on the time axis

Identity

Canonical tickerXOMFirst seen edition2026-09-12Registry stateactive

2026-09-12 → open · XOM opened at registration (lib/watchlist/register.js)

Divergence

No divergence between the editorial and resolution layers on this name.

Open stacks

Held in 0 of 0 open member stacks.

The stacks hold the full record — stances are addresses, never advice.