DISCIPLES OF CLAUDE
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Name detail

ORA

−15.3% called side since lock · last close 88.64 (Oct 8) · high close 107.97 · low close 88.64 · 37 days since lock

Everything the four surfaces know about one instrument, on one page.

Locked lineages
LOCKED · Ethan · Verdict due June 2027 · 264 days out
Listed apex of 24/7 geothermal baseload for off-grid compute; Thesis IX (exotic baseload) proxy, registered on the Sep 1 hyperscaler geothermal headline.

−15.3% called side since lock · last close 88.64 (Oct 8) · high close 107.97 · low close 88.64 · 37 days since lock

Sealed on 2026-09-02 — the claim, what would kill it, and what counts as success are frozen on an outside receipt. Nothing here can be quietly edited.
Succeeds if: In no two consecutive calendar quarters do hyperscaler geothermal contracts go exclusively to private developers, AND a second hyperscaler off-grid geothermal baseload contract is announced by 2027-03-31 — through the deadline.
Falsified if: Two consecutive quarters in which hyperscaler geothermal contracts go exclusively to private developers; or no second hyperscaler off-grid baseload contract by 2027-03-31.
Drivers Information update proposed Incentivized flow proposed
Verification details

Each fingerprint is a SHA-256 digest of the exact frozen text — a matching digest means the words you read are the words that were sealed.

Claim fingerprint (thesis_hash)9e15217ed0b13b96…Falsifier fingerprint (falsifier_hash)54ed113a332b49e1…Success-test fingerprint (predicate_hash)2f7086aa62a9c2ac…Outside custodyreceipt manual_operator · digest 22e92b14f61bcbb3… · received
Cross-examination

Members file counter-evidence against a locked lineage; the desk owes a public answer by a deadline that renders here either way.

No member has filed counter-evidence against this name's locked lineages. The floor is open: `/thesis challenge ORA <your counter-evidence>` from Slack.

COUNTER-EVIDENCE ≠ GRADE — a challenge never grades the thesis and never moves a score; it puts the desk on a public clock.
Edition assessments
Edition assessments

The room graded the proposition in each sealed edition — not a member.

2026-08-29 · NO TEST Backfilled edition hash 15bd0390467e559c74c076f3…
2026-09-05 · SUPPORTED Backfilled edition hash 3ad7e3fa56cf10ecb514d9f1…
2026-09-12 · CARRY Backfilled edition hash 6271a4889f18e60066663572…
2026-09-19 · CARRY Backfilled edition hash 4f554e02dd2769ad9cd297aa…
2026-10-03 · CARRY Backfilled edition hash 6cbb3f12f574ec962d2274d6…
This week · 0 events

No recorded events

Explore this week →

Coming up
Nov 2 · Earnings — context, not evidence
Verdict deadline · Verdict due June 2027 · 264 days out

Scheduled prints are context, never evidence — nothing here grades a thesis.

Arbiters
Arbiterscheckpoint: second hyperscaler off-grid geothermal baseload contract; quarterly hyperscaler-geothermal award ledger · 2027-03-31 · Hyperscaler and developer contract press releases + Ormat quarterly earnings releases (contract and PPA disclosures), tallied per calendar quarter · Reads FALSIFIED if by 2027-03-31 no hyperscaler beyond the 2026-09-01 deal has announced an off-grid geothermal baseload contract, OR if two consecutive calendar quarters pass in which every announced hyperscaler geothermal contract names only private (unlisted) developers. Reads POSITIVE at 2027-06-30 otherwise. · 0/2
Fresh tape
Fresh tape
Oct 1 · Analyst action · Buy to Neutral (UBS)

Scheduled prints are context, never evidence — nothing here grades a thesis.

Tape
Tape

−17.4% since added to list · 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-08

2026-10-08 · 88.64

10/26 sessions with call — agreement, not judgment.

Newest sessions +1.2ORA · 2026-09-25
close 1.18% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
−3.5ORA · 2026-09-28
close -3.49% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
+1.0ORA · 2026-09-29
close 1.01% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
+0.2ORA · 2026-09-30
close 0.24% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
−2.0ORA · 2026-10-01
close -2.00% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
+3.6ORA · 2026-10-02
close 3.57% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
edition week of 2026-10-03 — sealed
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
−1.7ORA · 2026-10-05
close -1.69% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
+1.9ORA · 2026-10-06
close 1.95% — with call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
−3.3ORA · 2026-10-07
close -3.33% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.
−1.5ORA · 2026-10-08
close -1.48% — against call
called side: LONG since 2026-09-02
Tape agreement only. TAPE ≠ VERDICT.

Daily close-to-close returns · Financial Modeling Prep end-of-day closes, automated daily ingest · newest session 2026-10-08.

TAPE ≠ VERDICT — tape agreement never grades a proposition and never derives an assessment.
Timeline lane
Timeline lane
MARKETT−24dearnings — context, not evidence
ARBITERT−173dcheckpoint: second hyperscaler off-grid geothermal baseload contract; quarterly hyperscaler-geothermal award ledger · Hyperscaler and developer contract press releases + Ormat quarterly earnings releases (contract and PPA disclosures), tallied per calendar quarter
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dmust meet its test by 2027-06-30

Full lane on the time axis

Identity
Identity
Canonical tickerORAFirst seen edition2026-08-29Registry stateactive
2026-08-29 → open · ORA opened at registration (lib/watchlist/register.js)
Divergence
Divergence

No divergence between the editorial and resolution layers on this name.

Open stacks

Held in 0 of 0 open member stacks.

The stacks hold the full record — stances are addresses, never advice.