DISCIPLES OF CLAUDE
观察名单 · 论点台账
账簿

台账

席间关注的每一只标的,按其在账簿上的多空一侧分组。主张先行;展开任一行可见完整记录。小图为价格行情,仅作背景 —— 行情不等于裁定。

筛选与排序

筛选中:31 条台账条目中显示 2 条 · 清除。

DEMAND SIDE · SHORT2
更远期2
DELL 做空 · capex cannibalization LOCKED+35.2% 自入册以来−16.8% 锁定以来(持仓同向) (价格 +16.8%) · 最新收盘价 574.55(10月8日) · 最高收盘 588.40 · 最低收盘 506.62 · 锁定至今 37 天

Server assembly is a toll paid, not collected; −6.8% on record AI-server news (Sep 1). Margin compresses as hyperscalers squeeze assemblers. Extension of the SNOW/CRM node.

证伪条件 Two consecutive quarters of expanding server gross margin at the print.裁定截止 2028年1月 · 469 天后
4× CARRY Ethan · 观察中 · 锁定于 2026年9月2日
查看完整记录 →
2026-06-06 · 无评估2026-06-13 · 无评估2026-06-20 · 无评估2026-06-27 · 无评估2026-07-04 · 无评估2026-07-11 · 无评估2026-07-18 · 无评估2026-07-25 · 无评估2026-08-01 · 无评估2026-08-08 · 无评估2026-08-15 · 无评估2026-08-22 · 无评估2026-08-29 · NO TEST
本周没有任何事件足以对该论点作出正反评定。
2026-09-05 · CARRY
论点仍在册——本版次没有带日期的检验。
2026-09-12 · CARRY
论点仍在册——本版次没有带日期的检验。
2026-09-19 · CARRY
论点仍在册——本版次没有带日期的检验。
2026-10-03 · CARRY
论点仍在册——本版次没有带日期的检验。
做空 自 9月2日 起 — capex cannibalization · 到期裁定 · 截至 2028年1月 · 469 天后 · 上一版次(10月3日):CARRY —— 论点仍在册,本版次无带日期的检验 · 锁定以来行情:26 个交易日中 10 个与持仓同向
deadline verdict: ISG server gross-margin sequence across quarterly prints · 2028-01-21 · Dell Technologies quarterly earnings releases and 10-Q/10-K segment tables (Infrastructure Solutions Group gross margin, issuer-reported)
前瞻:Dividend 10月20日 · 裁定截止 2028年1月 · 469 天后
所有人依据

Server assembly is a toll paid, not collected; −6.8% on record AI-server news (Sep 1). Margin compresses as hyperscalers squeeze assemblers. Extension of the SNOW/CRM node.

版次评估
2026-08-29 · NO TEST
2026-09-05 · CARRY
2026-09-12 · CARRY
2026-09-19 · CARRY
2026-10-03 · CARRY
TSM 做空 · capex cannibalization LOCKED+5.4% 自入册以来−2.9% 锁定以来(持仓同向) (价格 +2.9%) · 最新收盘价 457.99(10月8日) · 最高收盘 485.80 · 最低收盘 446.28 · 锁定至今 18 天 · 自提交(9月20日)以来(持仓同向):−5.4%

The foundry at the end of every forward order. The mechanism is the order book, not the wafer: leading-edge capacity is sold years ahead against the labs' and hyperscalers' training plans, and if those plans are paced — by a regulator, a grid that cannot deliver the gigawatts, or a budget that funds debt service first — the cancellation shows up in the next quarter's advanced-node revenue and in the margin a full fab earns and a half-full one does not. TSM is the single point where every merchant AI-hardware order clears, which is why it is the cleanest expression of hardware urgency dying — and the most dangerous, because the same position was in effect on the week this was written and lost: the memory and GPU names rose, and the primary source for the pacing call disclaims any halt. The book files it dated, because a short with a printed falsifier is how the room learns whether the regulatory-freeze story ever reaches a fab. The expression is defined-risk by construction — a January 2028 put structure, worst case known on entry. The kill is two prints of the company saying the opposite: advanced-node revenue growing year over year with gross margin held or better, twice in a row. Verdict due January 21, 2028.

证伪条件 TSM reports y/y growth in advanced-technology (7nm-and-below) wafer revenue AND gross margin at or above the prior-year quarter at two consecutive quarterly prints (TSMC quarterly results / management report, first-release vintage), before 2028-01-21.裁定截止 2028年1月 · 469 天后
1× CARRY Ethan · 观察中 · 锁定于 2026年9月21日
查看完整记录 →
2026-06-06 · 无评估2026-06-13 · 无评估2026-06-20 · 无评估2026-06-27 · 无评估2026-07-04 · 无评估2026-07-11 · 无评估2026-07-18 · 无评估2026-07-25 · 无评估2026-08-01 · 无评估2026-08-08 · 无评估2026-08-15 · 无评估2026-08-22 · 无评估2026-08-29 · 无评估2026-09-05 · 无评估2026-09-12 · 无评估2026-09-19 · 无评估2026-10-03 · CARRY
论点仍在册——本版次没有带日期的检验。
做空 自 9月21日 起 — capex cannibalization · 到期裁定 · 截至 2028年1月 · 469 天后 · 上一版次(10月3日):CARRY —— 论点仍在册,本版次无带日期的检验 · 锁定以来行情:14 个交易日中 6 个与持仓同向
TSMC Q3-2026 results — advanced-node revenue share and y/y; gross margin vs prior-year (first of the two-print test) (pin from issuer calendar at lock) · 2026-10-15 · TSMC quarterly management report and release, first-release vintage
前瞻:Earnings 10月15日 · 裁定截止 2028年1月 · 469 天后
所有人依据

The foundry at the end of every forward order. The mechanism is the order book, not the wafer: leading-edge capacity is sold years ahead against the labs' and hyperscalers' training plans, and if those plans are paced — by a regulator, a grid that cannot deliver the gigawatts, or a budget that funds debt service first — the cancellation shows up in the next quarter's advanced-node revenue and in the margin a full fab earns and a half-full one does not. TSM is the single point where every merchant AI-hardware order clears, which is why it is the cleanest expression of hardware urgency dying — and the most dangerous, because the same position was in effect on the week this was written and lost: the memory and GPU names rose, and the primary source for the pacing call disclaims any halt. The book files it dated, because a short with a printed falsifier is how the room learns whether the regulatory-freeze story ever reaches a fab. The expression is defined-risk by construction — a January 2028 put structure, worst case known on entry. The kill is two prints of the company saying the opposite: advanced-node revenue growing year over year with gross margin held or better, twice in a row. Verdict due January 21, 2028.

版次评估
2026-10-03 · CARRY

2 只已死标的陈列于墓园.

收盘价截至 10月8日 · 评定至 2026-10-03

变动最大
变动最大

VST 变动最大:下跌 6.3%,截至 10月8日 · 每股 $10.58.

变动最大 = 在册标的中最大的单日百分比变动,由经核验的相邻交易日收盘价计得 —— 两端收盘价俱在、同一来源、真实成交量。并列时以美元变动较大者胜出;最大变动不足 0.25% 时记为行情清淡。价格变动仅是背景,绝非裁定。

积分

成员积分分差——自各计分动作的前一收盘起,行情每移动带符号的一个百分点记一分;已锁定论点按 ×2.0 计。只是加总,不是比率:每个总分均附其动作数。

Ethan−171.2 28 计分动作分差需要两名成员各有计分动作
EXE long −7.7% ×2.0 = −15.4 · TLT short −3.7% ×2.0 = +7.4 · TSM short +5.4% ×2.0 = −10.7 · MU short +2.0% ×2.0 = −3.9 · RCL short +14.5% ×2.0 = −29.0 · SNDK short −10.2% ×2.0 = +20.4 · EPD long −5.5% ×2.0 = −11.0 · VST long +6.4% ×2.0 = +12.9 · CCJ long −12.0% ×2.0 = −24.1 · CEG long +2.3% ×2.0 = +4.6 · NXT long +6.0% ×2.0 = +11.9 · ETN long −7.7% ×2.0 = −15.4 · XOM long +1.5% ×2.0 = +3.1 · STLA short −6.2% ×2.0 = +12.4 · GOOGL long −0.36% ×2.0 = −0.7 · CVE long −3.5% ×2.0 = −6.9 · ICE long +2.7% ×2.0 = +5.3 · MP long −14.7% ×2.0 = −29.5 · FDX short −6.5% ×2.0 = +13.0 · CME long +0.16% ×2.0 = +0.3 · NVDA long +3.7% ×2.0 = +7.4 · BWXT long −12.0% ×2.0 = −23.9 · ORA long −17.4% ×2.0 = −34.8 · DELL short +35.2% ×2.0 = −70.4 · CSX short −2.8% ×2.0 = +5.6 · ODFL short −2.9% ×2.0 = +5.7 · DHI short −1.6% ×2.0 = +3.2 · CACI long −4.4% ×2.0 = −8.8
Points are tape arithmetic, not a verdict — no points figure grades a proposition or a person. —— 积分是行情算术,不是裁定:任何积分数字都不为命题或个人评级。