DISCIPLES OF CLAUDE
Watchlist · thesis ledger
Book

The register

Every name the room is watching, grouped by its side of the book. The claim leads; expand a row for its full record. The small chart is the price tape for context — the tape is not the verdict.

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Filtered: 1 of 31 register rows shown · clear.

DEMAND SIDE · SHORT1
Beyond1
TLT short · the arthur burns whipsaw LOCKED−3.7% since added to list+3.8% called side since lock (price −3.8%) · last close 77.87 (Oct 8) · high close 81.80 · low close 77.11 · 25 days since lock

The long bond, short — the one position that pays when the thing that marked the whole book keeps going. Every name on the board shares an assumption about the price of money; this makes it explicit and gradeable. The mechanism is the week's story: a hot inflation print, a Fed priced to hike into it, an August thirty-year auction that cleared at its highest yield in a quarter century and still tailed, and a deficit near two trillion. The fund's duration is just under fifteen years, so a quarter point on the long end is about three and three-quarters percent of price either way. The ten-year is already at the cusp of five and much of this is priced — the position is a hedge on the book's shared assumption, not a fresh bet against it.

Falsified if DGS10 close ≤ 4.50 before 2027-03-31.Verdict due March 2027 · 173 days out
2× CARRY Ethan · Watching · Locked since Sep 14, 2026
Open the full record →
2026-06-06 · no assessment2026-06-13 · no assessment2026-06-20 · no assessment2026-06-27 · no assessment2026-07-04 · no assessment2026-07-11 · no assessment2026-07-18 · no assessment2026-07-25 · no assessment2026-08-01 · no assessment2026-08-08 · no assessment2026-08-15 · no assessment2026-08-22 · no assessment2026-08-29 · no assessment2026-09-05 · no assessment2026-09-12 · no assessment2026-09-19 · CARRY
Thesis stands — no dated test this edition.
2026-10-03 · CARRY
Thesis stands — no dated test this edition.
SHORT since Sep 14 — the arthur burns whipsaw · answers by March 2027 · 173 days out · last edition (Oct 3): CARRY — the thesis stood, no dated test · tape since lock: 13 of 19 sessions with the call
daily DGS10 close scan through the window; first checkpoint the FOMC statement 2026-09-16, 2 PM ET · 2027-03-31 · FRED DGS10 daily — US Treasury constant-maturity 10-year par yield (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, business-day closes through 2027-03-30), cross-checked against the treasury.gov daily par curve; FOMC statement 2026-09-16 (federalreserve.gov) as the first checkpoint
Coming up: Verdict due March 2027 · 173 days out
Owner rationale

The long bond, short — the one position that pays when the thing that marked the whole book keeps going. Every name on the board shares an assumption about the price of money; this makes it explicit and gradeable. The mechanism is the week's story: a hot inflation print, a Fed priced to hike into it, an August thirty-year auction that cleared at its highest yield in a quarter century and still tailed, and a deficit near two trillion. The fund's duration is just under fifteen years, so a quarter point on the long end is about three and three-quarters percent of price either way. The ten-year is already at the cusp of five and much of this is priced — the position is a hedge on the book's shared assumption, not a fresh bet against it.

Edition assessments
2026-09-19 · CARRY
2026-10-03 · CARRY

2 dead names render in the graveyard.

Closes through Oct 8 · grades through 2026-10-03

Moved most
Moved most

VST moved most: down 6.3% into Oct 8 · $10.58 a share.

Moved most = the largest one-day percentage move among register names, computed from verified adjacent-session closing prices — both closes present, one source, real volume. Ties break to the larger dollar move; under a 0.25% top move the tape is called quiet. A price move is context, never a verdict.

Points

Member point differential — one point per signed percent of tape move since each act's prior close; locked theses count ×2.0. Sums, not rates: every total carries its act count.

Ethan−171.2 28 scored act(s)differential needs two members with scored acts
EXE long −7.7% ×2.0 = −15.4 · TLT short −3.7% ×2.0 = +7.4 · TSM short +5.4% ×2.0 = −10.7 · MU short +2.0% ×2.0 = −3.9 · RCL short +14.5% ×2.0 = −29.0 · SNDK short −10.2% ×2.0 = +20.4 · EPD long −5.5% ×2.0 = −11.0 · VST long +6.4% ×2.0 = +12.9 · CCJ long −12.0% ×2.0 = −24.1 · CEG long +2.3% ×2.0 = +4.6 · NXT long +6.0% ×2.0 = +11.9 · ETN long −7.7% ×2.0 = −15.4 · XOM long +1.5% ×2.0 = +3.1 · STLA short −6.2% ×2.0 = +12.4 · GOOGL long −0.36% ×2.0 = −0.7 · CVE long −3.5% ×2.0 = −6.9 · ICE long +2.7% ×2.0 = +5.3 · MP long −14.7% ×2.0 = −29.5 · FDX short −6.5% ×2.0 = +13.0 · CME long +0.16% ×2.0 = +0.3 · NVDA long +3.7% ×2.0 = +7.4 · BWXT long −12.0% ×2.0 = −23.9 · ORA long −17.4% ×2.0 = −34.8 · DELL short +35.2% ×2.0 = −70.4 · CSX short −2.8% ×2.0 = +5.6 · ODFL short −2.9% ×2.0 = +5.7 · DHI short −1.6% ×2.0 = +3.2 · CACI long −4.4% ×2.0 = −8.8
Points are tape arithmetic, not a verdict — no points figure grades a proposition or a person.