DISCIPLES OF CLAUDE
Watchlist · thesis ledger
Timeline

The time axis

One spine, soonest first: everything dated that the ledger knows is coming, the present marker, then the record. Countdowns share one grammar with the docket; below the line there are only dates and outcomes, never countdowns.

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Lane · Desk-widePer-name
Horizon · AllWeekMonthBeyond
Further outbeyond 35 days
LOCK-DEADLINET−83dEXE must meet its test by 2026-12-31
ARBITERT−83dEXE deadline verdict: TTF-HH / TTF spread check · TTF-HH YTD% spread / TTF settlement price series (as named in falsifier) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−83dEXE deadline verdict: TTF-HH / TTF spread check · TTF-HH YTD% spread / TTF settlement price series (as named in falsifier) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
LOCK-DEADLINET−173dTLT must meet its test by 2027-03-31
LOCK-DEADLINET−173dCCJ must meet its test by 2027-03-31
LOCK-DEADLINET−173dXOM must meet its test by 2027-03-31
ARBITERT−173dCCJ deadline verdict: realized-price / term-contracting check · CCJ quarterly earnings print (realized price + contracting volume disclosures) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−173dCCJ deadline verdict: realized-price / term-contracting check · CCJ quarterly earnings print (realized price + contracting volume disclosures) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−173dORA checkpoint: second hyperscaler off-grid geothermal baseload contract; quarterly hyperscaler-geothermal award ledger · Hyperscaler and developer contract press releases + Ormat quarterly earnings releases (contract and PPA disclosures), tallied per calendar quarter 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−173dXOM daily WTI settle scan through the window; first checkpoint the ExxonMobil Q3 2026 report (late October, realized price and refining margin) · EIA daily spot price — WTI Cushing, Oklahoma (eia.gov, the RWTC daily series, every trading day through 2027-03-30); ExxonMobil Q3 2026 earnings release (investor.exxonmobil.com) for the realized-price and refining-margin checkpoint 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−173dTLT daily DGS10 close scan through the window; first checkpoint the FOMC statement 2026-09-16, 2 PM ET · FRED DGS10 daily — US Treasury constant-maturity 10-year par yield (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, business-day closes through 2027-03-30), cross-checked against the treasury.gov daily par curve; FOMC statement 2026-09-16 (federalreserve.gov) as the first checkpoint 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dMU must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dSNDK must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dEPD must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dVST must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dNXT must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dCVE must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dICE must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dCME must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dORA must meet its test by 2027-06-30
LOCK-DEADLINET−264dCACI must meet its test by 2027-06-30
ARBITERT−264dICE deadline verdict: OI / energy ADV / clearing-revenue check · ICE monthly volume reports + quarterly earnings print (issuer-published) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dVST deadline verdict: capacity-auction / PPA check · capacity auction results + PPA disclosure record (issuer/market-published) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dICE deadline verdict: OI / energy ADV / clearing-revenue check · ICE monthly volume reports + quarterly earnings print (issuer-published) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dVST deadline verdict: capacity-auction / PPA check · capacity auction results + PPA disclosure record (issuer/market-published) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dFDX FDX consumer fuse cutoff · Original Fitch U.S. subprime auto ABS 60+ delinquency monthly first prints and NY Fed Household Debt and Credit auto-loan flow into serious delinquency (90+) quarterly first prints; all decisive publications available by June 30, 2027 ET. 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dMU deadline verdict: quarterly gross-margin and revenue-guidance pair scan through the window; first checkpoint the late-September 2026 print (the desk's scored test) · Micron quarterly earnings releases and 8-K exhibits on EDGAR (reported gross margin; next-quarter revenue guidance midpoint; first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dSNDK deadline verdict: quarterly gross-margin and revenue-guidance pair scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · SanDisk quarterly earnings releases and 8-K exhibits on EDGAR (reported gross margin; next-quarter revenue guidance midpoint; first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dCME deadline verdict: monthly total-ADV sequence and quarterly clearing-and-transaction-fees check through the window · CME Group monthly volume reports (total average daily volume; issuer-published) and quarterly earnings releases (clearing and transaction fees revenue; first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dEPD deadline verdict: quarterly volume-and-gross-operating-margin pair scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · Enterprise Products Partners quarterly earnings releases (natural gas pipeline transportation volumes; total gross operating margin; issuer-published, first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−264dNXT deadline verdict: quarterly backlog and gross-margin scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · Nextracker quarterly earnings releases (reported backlog; gross margin; issuer-published, first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
LOCK-DEADLINET−448dGOOGL must meet its test by 2027-12-31
LOCK-DEADLINET−448dMP must meet its test by 2027-12-31
LOCK-DEADLINET−448dNVDA must meet its test by 2027-12-31
LOCK-DEADLINET−448dBWXT must meet its test by 2027-12-31
ARBITERT−448dMP deadline verdict: export-flow / offtake-subsidy / output-guidance check · China export-policy record + MP Materials guidance/issuer disclosures 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−448dMP deadline verdict: export-flow / offtake-subsidy / output-guidance check · China export-policy record + MP Materials guidance/issuer disclosures 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−448dBWXT deadline verdict: US heavy reactor-vessel forge qualification + Pele-class program status · DoD Strategic Capabilities Office / DOE Project Pele program record + Naval Reactors / NRC vessel-forge qualification announcements (issuer and agency releases) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−448dGOOGL deadline verdict: quarterly capital-expenditure guidance scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · Alphabet quarterly earnings releases and earnings-call guidance (full-year capital expenditure guidance; issuer-published, first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−448dNVDA deadline verdict: quarterly revenue-outlook and data-center-revenue scan through the window; first checkpoint the first quarterly print after filing · Nvidia quarterly earnings releases and CFO commentary (next-quarter revenue outlook midpoint; data center segment revenue; issuer-published, first-release vintage) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dTSM must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dRCL must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dSTLA must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dFDX must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dDELL must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dCSX must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dODFL must meet its test by 2028-01-21
LOCK-DEADLINET−469dDHI must meet its test by 2028-01-21
ARBITERT−469dDELL deadline verdict: ISG server gross-margin sequence across quarterly prints · Dell Technologies quarterly earnings releases and 10-Q/10-K segment tables (Infrastructure Solutions Group gross margin, issuer-reported) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−469dCSX deadline verdict: operating-ratio y/y sequence at quarterly prints against the distillate level · CSX quarterly earnings releases (operating ratio, issuer-reported) + NY Harbor ULSD front-month settlement (CME/NYMEX), converted ¢/gal × 0.42 = $/bbl, quarterly average 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−469dODFL deadline verdict: y/y LTL tonnage sequence against operating ratio at quarterly prints · Old Dominion quarterly earnings releases and monthly operating-metric updates (LTL tons per day y/y, operating ratio, issuer-reported) 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−469dFDX FDX final paired-metric verdict review · Sealed eligible issuer quarter evidence and the already frozen June 30, 2027 consumer snapshot, using the approved complete parameter contract. 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−469dRCL deadline verdict: quarterly net-yield and full-year-guidance pair scan through the window, with the consumer-fuse cutoff 2027-06-30 as the mid-window checkpoint · Royal Caribbean quarterly earnings releases (net yields; full-year adjusted EPS guidance; first-release vintage) + Fitch U.S. subprime auto ABS 60+ delinquency monthly first prints + NY Fed Household Debt and Credit auto-loan serious-delinquency flow quarterly first prints 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
ARBITERT−469dSTLA deadline verdict: margin-and-shipments pair scan across periodic results reports, with the consumer-fuse cutoff 2027-06-30 as the mid-window checkpoint · Stellantis periodic results releases (adjusted operating income margin; consolidated shipments; issuer-published, first-release vintage) + Fitch U.S. subprime auto ABS 60+ delinquency monthly first prints + NY Fed Household Debt and Credit auto-loan serious-delinquency flow quarterly first prints 0/2
detailsAn arbiter is the pre-named outside event that grades the thesis — a date and a source, never an opinion. This date has moved 0 of its 2 allowed times.
LOCK-DEADLINET−479dCEG must meet its test by 2028-01-31
Present · 2026-10-09
The recordwhat happened, dated — the past side re-litigates nothing
MARKET2026-10-03GOOGL press release — Investor Alert: Robbins LLP Informs Investors of the Alphabet Inc. Class…
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
EDITION2026-10-03 EDITION 28 edition assessments
MARKET2026-10-02CME press release — CME Group Reports Record Average Daily Volume for September and Q3, Driven by…
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02CME press release — CME Group Suspends Plans to Launch 24/7 10-Barrel Crude Oil Contract
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02CSX analyst action — Positive to Positive (Susquehanna)
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02EXE analyst action — Buy to Buy (Jefferies)
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02EXE analyst action — Buy to Buy (UBS)
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02GOOGL press release — GOOGL DEADLINE ALERT: Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Reminds Alphabet Investors of…
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02GOOGL press release — GOOGL CLASS ACTION NOTICE: Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter LLP Files Securities…
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02GOOGL press release — GOOGL CLASS ACTION NOTICE: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Files Securities…
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02ICE analyst action — Overweight to Overweight (Piper Sandler)
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-02ODFL analyst action — Neutral to Neutral (Susquehanna)
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
MARKET2026-10-01VST analyst action — Outperform to Outperform (Bernstein)
detailsA scheduled print or filing from the market calendar — context the room is watching. It never grades anything and can never become an arbiter.
EDITION2026-09-19 EDITION 14 edition assessments
EDITION2026-09-12 EDITION 13 edition assessments
EDITION2026-09-05 EDITION 22 edition assessments
EDITION2026-08-29 EDITION 22 edition assessments
EDITION2026-08-22 EDITION 17 edition assessments
EDITION2026-08-15 EDITION 6 edition assessments
EDITION2026-08-08 EDITION 17 edition assessments
EDITION2026-08-01 EDITION 19 edition assessments
EDITION2026-07-25 EDITION 17 edition assessments
EDITION2026-07-18 EDITION pre-book era
EDITION2026-07-11 EDITION pre-book era
EDITION2026-07-04 EDITION pre-book era
EDITION2026-06-27 EDITION pre-book era
EDITION2026-06-20 EDITION pre-book era
EDITION2026-06-13 EDITION pre-book era
EDITION2026-06-06 EDITION pre-book era
death_clock (watchlist_items unlocked rows) · F-3 founder-open — no ratified clock duration; 2 unlocked book row(s) carry no DEATH-CLOCK mark
company_events · market tape capped — 131 older mark(s) inside the lookback not drawn; the full rail lives on each name page