Ryan

入席日期 2026-06-09.

從紀錄看觀點

每日預測

一個問題，一個機率，然後是結果。目前的公開紀錄來自每日預測。

0條公開論點17條公開預測

目前關注

進行中的判斷尚無已確認主題。

最新公開紀錄日期： 2026-10-08

這段描述依據什麼

描述依據公開判斷與已確認主題。主題標籤描述論據，不代表持倉權重。

2026-07-28 · 公開預測 · 30%
2026-08-04 · 公開預測 · 98%
2026-10-08 · 公開預測 · 90%
2026-09-22 · 公開預測 · 85%
2026-07-30 · 公開預測 · 10%
2026-06-16 · 公開預測 · 80%
2026-09-30 · 公開預測 · 99%
2026-06-24 · 公開預測 · 75%
2026-07-20 · 公開預測 · 60%
2026-07-14 · 公開預測 · 10%
2026-07-22 · 公開預測 · 40%
2026-07-12 · 公開預測 · 90%
2026-07-30 · 公開預測 · 100%
2026-07-24 · 公開預測 · 60%
2026-08-11 · 公開預測 · 10%
2026-07-26 · 公開預測 · 35%
2026-08-14 · 公開預測 · 25%

展開完整紀錄

Theses

Active0

No live theses. The record starts at the first external lock receipt.

Slack Daily Predictions

Games

0.035

Mean α

-0.016

Brier

76%

Win%

1.40

Profit factor

Game streak

current 2× hits · longest hit run 7

Calibration

confidence 81% vs accuracy 71% — the filings run hot

Observed filing behavior

Primary-tag concentration

fewer than two theses carry an author-confirmed primary tag — nothing to compute

Horizon

no dated theses yet

Self-falsification

no name has reached a decidable point yet

Counted from public post-lock filings — descriptions of what was filed, never grades, and nothing here feeds scoring. Every denominator is printed beside its figure.

No standing beside other members is shown: that needs a longer record than this one.

Slots

Slot details are unavailable.