Ethan

描述依据公开判断与已确认主题。主题标签描述论据，不代表持仓权重。

• EPD · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  Natural gas pipeline transportation volumes and total gross operating margin are not both down year over year at two consecutive quarterly prints — through the deadline.

• CSX · 做空 · 2026-09-02

  Operating ratio does not improve year over year at two consecutive quarterly prints while distillates stay above $150/bbl — through the deadline.

• EXE · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  TTF-HH YTD% reaches or holds at least +30pts by Dec 31 2026, AND TTF does not close below EUR30 for 10 consecutive sessions.

• VST · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  Forward power/capacity prints do not roll below prior-year for two consecutive auctions, AND at least one new GW-scale datacenter PPA is signed within some two-consecutive-quarter window — through the deadline.

• TLT · 做空 · 2026-09-14

  DGS10 does not close at or below 4.50 before 2027-03-31 — through the deadline.

• MP · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  China does not durably normalize Nd/NdFeB export flows (a new restriction occurs, or normalization does not hold through 2027-06-30), OR the Texas magnet facility's government offtake/subsidy support is not cut or materially delayed — AND Mountain Pass output guidance is not cut — through the deadline.

• NXT · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  Reported backlog is not down year over year at any quarterly print, AND gross margin is not down year over year at two consecutive quarterly prints — through the deadline.

• CEG · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  The 3-2-1 crack complex does not close below $15 for 10 consecutive sessions (no crack-complex demobilization), AND the buildout does not self-fund without a scarcity premium — through the deadline.

• SNDK · 做空 · 2026-09-21

  In no two consecutive quarterly prints (first-release vintage) before the deadline does SanDisk report gross margin flat or higher quarter over quarter while guiding next-quarter revenue (midpoint) above the quarter just reported — through the deadline.

• CME · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  Total average daily volume is not down year over year in two consecutive monthly volume reports, AND clearing and transaction fees revenue does not decline year over year at any quarterly print — through the deadline.

• BWXT · 做多 · 2026-09-02

  No second qualified US heavy reactor-vessel forge is announced AND the Pele-class microreactor programs are not cancelled — through the deadline.

• CVE · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  WTI does not settle below $70 on any day before 2027-06-30 (EIA RWTC), AND the WCS–WTI differential does not exceed $20/bbl for 10 consecutive sessions — through the deadline.

• STLA · 做空 · 2026-09-21

  Positive if, before the deadline, no two consecutive periodic results reports show adjusted operating income margin flat or higher year over year together with consolidated shipments up year over year, AND the consumer trigger (Fitch subprime auto 60+ YoY change ≥ +100bp for two consecutive months AND NY Fed auto serious-delinquency flow > 3.25%) has fired by 2027-06-30 — through the deadline.

• MU · 做空 · 2026-09-21

  In no two consecutive quarterly prints (first-release vintage) before the deadline does Micron report gross margin flat or higher quarter over quarter while guiding next-quarter revenue (midpoint) above the quarter just reported — through the deadline.

• DHI · 做空 · 2026-09-21

  DHI does not report both y/y net-order growth and a cancellation rate at-or-below prior-year at two consecutive quarterly prints, AND the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed does not print below 6.00% for four consecutive weeks — through the deadline.

• ETN · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  Backlog guidance is not cut at any quarterly print through the deadline.

• XOM · 做多 · 2026-09-14

  WTI does not settle below $70 on any day before 2027-03-31 (EIA daily spot) — through the deadline.

• EXE · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  TTF-HH YTD% reaches or holds at least +30pts by Dec 31 2026, AND TTF does not close below EUR30 for 10 consecutive sessions.

• DELL · 做空 · 2026-09-02

  Server (Infrastructure Solutions Group) gross margin does not expand at two consecutive quarterly prints — through the deadline.

• FDX · 做空 · 2026-07-09

  Positive if FDX reports YoY declines in BOTH average daily package volumes AND adjusted operating margin (10-Q, first-release vintage) for two consecutive quarterly prints before deadline, with the consumer trigger fired.

• NVDA · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  Nvidia does not guide next-quarter total revenue (outlook midpoint) below the total revenue just reported, AND does not report data center revenue down quarter over quarter, at any quarterly print — through the deadline.

• ODFL · 做空 · 2026-09-02

  LTL tonnage does not grow year over year for two consecutive quarters with operating ratio flat or better — through the deadline.

• ETN · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  Backlog guidance is not cut at any quarterly print through the deadline.

• MP · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  China does not durably normalize Nd/NdFeB export flows (a new restriction occurs, or normalization does not hold through 2027-06-30), OR the Texas magnet facility's government offtake/subsidy support is not cut or materially delayed — AND Mountain Pass output guidance is not cut — through the deadline.

• ICE · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  Total OI and energy ADV are not both down y/y for two consecutive monthly reports, AND energy clearing revenue does not decline y/y at any quarterly print — through the deadline.

• TSM · 做空 · 2026-09-21

  TSM does not report both y/y advanced-technology (7nm-and-below) wafer revenue growth and gross margin at-or-above prior-year at two consecutive quarterly prints — through the deadline.

• GOOGL · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  Alphabet does not reduce its full-year capital expenditure guidance at any quarterly print — through the deadline.

• RCL · 做空 · 2026-09-21

  Positive if, before the deadline, no two consecutive quarterly prints (first-release vintage) show net yields up year over year with full-year earnings guidance held or raised, AND the consumer trigger (Fitch subprime auto 60+ YoY change ≥ +100bp for two consecutive months AND NY Fed auto serious-delinquency flow > 3.25%) has fired by 2027-06-30 — through the deadline.

• CEG · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  The 3-2-1 crack complex does not close below $15 for 10 consecutive sessions (no crack-complex demobilization), AND the buildout does not self-fund without a scarcity premium — through the deadline.

• ICE · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  Total OI and energy ADV are not both down y/y for two consecutive monthly reports, AND energy clearing revenue does not decline y/y at any quarterly print — through the deadline.

• CCJ · 做多 · 2026-08-13

  Average realized uranium price does not decline y/y at a quarterly print, OR term-contracting volume does not stall — through the deadline.

• CACI · 做多 · 2026-09-21

  At least one federal award naming AI model evaluation, assurance, red-teaming or licensing is made to CACI by 2027-06-30 (SAM.gov / CACI 8-K), OR CACI funded backlog does not decline y/y at two consecutive quarterly prints (10-Q, first-release vintage) — through the deadline.

• FDX · 做空 · 2026-09-14

  Positive if FDX reports YoY declines in BOTH average daily package volumes AND adjusted operating margin (10-Q, first-release vintage) for two consecutive quarterly prints before deadline, with the consumer trigger fired.

• CCJ · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  Average realized uranium price does not decline y/y at a quarterly print, OR term-contracting volume does not stall — through the deadline.

• ORA · 做多 · 2026-09-02

  In no two consecutive calendar quarters do hyperscaler geothermal contracts go exclusively to private developers, AND a second hyperscaler off-grid geothermal baseload contract is announced by 2027-03-31 — through the deadline.

• VST · 做多 · 2026-08-04

  Forward power/capacity prints do not roll below prior-year for two consecutive auctions, AND at least one new GW-scale datacenter PPA is signed within some two-consecutive-quarter window — through the deadline.

• 2026-07-30 · 公开预测 · 85%
• 2026-08-05 · 公开预测 · 85%
• 2026-06-24 · 公开预测 · 75%
• 2026-07-13 · 公开预测 · 40%
• 2026-07-17 · 公开预测 · 90%
• 2026-07-31 · 公开预测 · 90%
• 2026-09-09 · 公开预测 · 90%
• 2026-08-11 · 公开预测 · 85%
• 2026-09-11 · 公开预测 · 90%
• 2026-07-16 · 公开预测 · 20%
• 2026-07-19 · 公开预测 · 75%
• 2026-06-16 · 公开预测 · 75%
• 2026-06-12 · 公开预测 · 20%
• 2026-09-10 · 公开预测 · 25%
• 2026-06-22 · 公开预测 · 30%
• 2026-06-10 · 公开预测 · 72%
• 2026-07-12 · 公开预测 · 85%
• 2026-08-06 · 公开预测 · 20%
• 2026-09-04 · 公开预测 · 2%
• 2026-07-28 · 公开预测 · 1%
• 2026-07-27 · 公开预测 · 20%
• 2026-07-24 · 公开预测 · 30%
• 2026-07-22 · 公开预测 · 25%
• 2026-09-03 · 公开预测 · 10%
• 2026-08-14 · 公开预测 · 98%
• 2026-07-15 · 公开预测 · 30%
• 2026-08-04 · 公开预测 · 90%
• 2026-09-22 · 公开预测 · 90%
• 2026-06-11 · 公开预测 · 80%